COMBI results overview & policy conclusions

The final COMBI policy report is now available online:

Multiple impacts in policy-making and evaluation

Abstract: The final COMBI policy report is an overview report on project findings and conclusions. It first explains the background of the discussion on multiple impacts and the motivations and approaches taken by the COMBI project. A significant part displays briefly the main findings in impact quantifications. In a separate chapter, the aggregation of impacts is shown and cost-benefit indicators and results explained. Finally, reasearchers draw conclusions – on the possible size and significance of multiple impacts and for policy-making. Additionally, detailed impact-specific conclusions and recommendations are included.

 

Authors: Johannes Thema, Jana Rasch, Felix Suerkemper, Stefan Thomas (Wuppertal Institute)

With contributions from:

Johan Couder (University of Antwerp)
Souran Chatterjee (ABUD)
Jens Teubler (Wuppertal Institute)
Martin Bo Hansen and Sabine Wilke (Copenhagen Economics)
Nora Mzavanadze and Stefan Bouzarovski (University of Manchester)

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COMBI online tool & final conference documentation

The new COMBI online tool has been launched during the final COMBI conference on 17 May 2018 and is now accessible via the COMBI website menu. The tool contains all major project quantifications of Multiple Impacts of Energy Efficiency and links to the relevant project reports on methodologies.

Vincent Berruto, head of the EASME energy unit introduced the project to the audience. Kathleen Gaffney from the IEA gave latest developments and news on Multiple Impact quantification with international examples. Paul Hodson, head of the energy efficiency unit in DG ENER explained how the discourse on Multiple Impacts is increasingly important in negotiations on current energy efficiency legislation between the EU Parliamant, the Commission and the Council.

The COMBI team presented research findings and the online tool programmed within the project for giving public access to all quantifications.

External speakers presented on other ongoing efforts in Europe to quantify multiple impacts: the ODYSSEE-MURE multiple benefits facility, quantifying numerous impacts of EE policies, looking backwards and against a reference scenario without EE policies; the M-BENEFITS project that will analyse multiple benefits in the industry sector and develop tools how to integrate them into business decision-making frameworks that make EE investments more attractive relative to alternatives; and efforts at UCL to better quantify the complex interdependencies of health impacts from building refurbishment.

Find all presentations in the download section

 

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COMBI conference 17 May: sign up for live-stream!

Multiple Impacts of Energy Efficiency in Policymaking

Programme: Keynotes by IEA and DG ENER, presentations of project findings by COMBI researchers, input from other European projects on the topic and expert panel on the future of MI assessments in policy.
Date: May 17, 13.00-17.30 CET

More details on conference programme

Live-stream

The entire conference is streamed live. Registration is possible under the link below. Registered participants can participate to the whole event or log in only part-time for sessions of interest (please see conference program). Our GoToWebinar software also allows asking questions for remote participants.

Free registration for COMBI webinar

Note: when registering for the webinar, you will be asked for your name and email address. This will solely be used for automated communication related to the webinar and deleted afterwards.

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COMBI final conference: registration until 10th May!

Launch of online tool and final project conference in Brussels

On 17 May 2018 in Brussels, COMBI organizes the final project conference, where we officially launch our online tool quantifying the multiple impacts of Energy Efficiency. Registration for the event until 10th May! Participation to live-stream open.

Background: The EU follows the „energy efficiency first“ principle – with one key reason being that efficiency not only brings energy and greenhouse gas savings but also a range of multiple benefits or impacts. But of what size are impacts? How can they be included in cost-benefit analysis? Do they really bring added value to the policy discourse and should energy policy departments team up with others to reap those benefits?
Audience invited: The event is dedicated to policymakers and their assistants, consultants, to researchers and journalists on the field, but open to the general public. Participation is free of charge.

Programme: Keynotes will explain the current value of quantifying multiple impacts in policymaking from an international perspective (Kathleen Gaffney, IEA) and from an EU perspective (Paul Hodson, DG ENER, Head of Energy Efficiency Unit).

COMBI project researchers present approaches and findings for the quantifications of multiple impacts of energy efficiency in the EU by 2030. Most important impact quantifications have been included to an online tool that will be launched during the event and will be available immediately to participants open-access.
The conference also presents ex-post assessments and results from other European projects and models and discusses if and how multiple impacts can contribute to strengthen the case for energy efficiency in the future.

Conference program available here.

 

Date: 17 May 2018, 13.00-17.30 CET

Venue: First Euroflat Hotel, Boulevard Charlemagne 50, 1000 Brussels

The organizer reserves the right to make changes to the event program.

 

 

   Register now
   Register for live-stream

Questions on registration & organisation: info@abud.hu

Questions on content & press contact: info@combi-project.eu

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Energy system/security impacts

COMBI: Avoidable: More than 250 TWh electricity generation and 10 bn€ investments in combustion plants.

COMBI quantifications are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

For analysing efficiency impacts on the energy system and energy security, the dedicated COMBI energy balance model was developed and applied. A number of relevant indicators were quantified:

  • Energy intensity is reduced up to 22 kgoe/1000€ GDP
  • The COMBI HHI index measuring energy security through import dependency, diversification of energy sources and geographical diversification improves by up to 5%
  • Avoided generation of power from combustibles-based power plants amounts to 257 TWh in the EU and
  • avoided investments to these power plants to around 10bn €.

De-rated reserve capacity rate (defined as the reserve capacity of the power sector, divided by its total installed capacity, multiplied by 100) improves in almost all EU countries.

More details and full quantification report

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Macro-economic impacts

COMBI: Up to 1% of GDP, 2.3mn job-years and lower fossil fuel prices.

COMBI quantifications are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Macro-economic impacts are quantified using two modelling approaches: input-output modelling for short-term (business cycle) effects and CGE modelling for long-term/structural effects. As also seen in other modelling (e.g. EU-COM impact assessment of EED), these models give a range of possible outcomes.

In the short run, the positive macro-economic stimulus is substantial; we estimate 0.9 per cent of EU’s GDP and a positive effect on the labour market of about 2.3 mn job-years. However, this stimulus will only materialise in countries with idle resources in 2030 that can support further growth (negative output gap, situation of economic downturn). In 2018, about half of the EU28 Member States are expected to have a negative output gap.

In the long run, CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) modelling does not show significant impacts on employment and even slightly negative impacts on GDP. However, energy efficiency will still lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions and significantly lowered carbon allowance and fossil fuel prices, which, given all EU countries are net fossil fuel importers will also improve their terms of trade.

More details and full quantification report

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Labour productivity from building refurbishment and transport

COMBI: Shifting from non-refurbished to refurbished buildings can mean 4.5 additional annual work-days.

COMBI quantifications are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Human productivity following improved health conditions from building refurbishment and transport modal shift are estimated: Several new metrics such as active days, workforce performance and earning ability are proposed to rigorously measure productivity impact of EEI. Accelerated EEI actions between 2015 and 2030 would bring these additional benefits in the year 2030:

  • in Europe, on an average 4.5 active work days/person per annum can be gained by having more deeply retrofitted buildings, passive houses, and nearly zero energy buildings.
  • In addition, by improving the mental well-being on an average European country can gain around 15.7 million euro/year and on an average 1961 healthy life years per million population per annum can be gained by avoiding exposure to bad indoor air quality and conditions.

By opting for modal shift towards active transportation, on an average 1.6 hours/driver can be saved from traffic congestion in a year.

More details (full report forthcoming)

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Energy poverty, residential building refurbishment and human health

COMBI: improving the quality of residential housing may avoid 24 000 premature deaths and loss of 23 000 life-years annually.

According to the European Union’s Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU SILC), 9.4% of European Union’s population were unable to keep their homes adequately warm and 15.2% lived in residential housing characterized by a leaking roof, damp walls, floors or foundation, and rot in window frames or floors in 2015. COMBI quantified the energy poverty-related public health impacts in the year 2030 of accelerated building refurbishments between 2015 and 2030 – avoided excess cold weather deaths due to reduced indoor cold exposure and avoided/reduced asthma due to reduced indoor dampness exposure.

Results are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Depending on scenarios of whether policies are targeted towards socially vulnerable or not at all, the results show that:

  • 3 000–24 000 avoided premature deaths due to reduced indoor cold
  • 2 700–22 300 avoided disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) loss of asthma morbidity due to reduced indoor dampness
  • The associated economic value of avoided annual public health damage in 2030 ranges from 323 million EUR to 2.5 billion EUR for premature mortality due to indoor cold; and
  • from 338 million EUR to of 2.9 billion EUR due to asthma morbidity due to indoor dampness.

More details and full report

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Resource impacts

COMBI: EE not only saves energy and 360Mt of CO2 emissions, but also 150Mt upstream emissions and 850Mt of material resources.

The researchers quantified the material demand and greenhouse gas emissions from energy efficiency improvements as annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Energy efficiency is resource efficiency. More than 850 million tons of material do not have to be permanently removed from nature, if Europe implements energy efficiency measures in all sectors. As well, some 360Mt CO2eq of greenhouse gas emissions from direct combustion can be saved plus an additional 150 Mt CO2eq of upstream emissions from the energy provision chain.

Yet, there are also resource costs. As an example from the transport sector, roughly 51 million tons of fossil fuels could be saved from improvements in the transport sector alone, but some additional 18 million tons of metal ores are required to provide the necessary transport systems of the future.

More details and full quantification report

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