This part of the project analyses energy security, including power reliability (outages) and avoided capacity costs (reduced peak power demand). Power quality events (e.g. voltage dips and swells or harmonic distortions) are treated marginally and in the framework of power reliability, as the link with energy security turns out to be fairly minimal.
A literature review reveals that energy security is a rather elusive concept, which is not only problematic to define, but also to measure. Moreover, literature on energy security policies and related costs/benefits is poor. In that perspective, an important first step is to agree on an “operational definition” of energy security.
The assessment will be based on an energy systems approach, where scenario results of existing energy systems models are combined with a carefully selected set of energy security indicators, taking into account the operational definition of energy security. Selection criteria are amongst others the extent to which indicators directly quantify (and if possible monetize) the impacts of a threat on the energy system, the transparency of the indicators, the amount of expert judgment required, and data availability. The analysis will make use of the energy accounting tool LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System).