COMBI: Up to 1% of GDP, 2.3mn job-years and lower fossil fuel prices.
COMBI quantifications are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.
Macro-economic impacts are quantified using two modelling approaches: input-output modelling for short-term (business cycle) effects and CGE modelling for long-term/structural effects. As also seen in other modelling (e.g. EU-COM impact assessment of EED), these models give a range of possible outcomes.
In the short run, the positive macro-economic stimulus is substantial; we estimate 0.9 per cent of EU’s GDP and a positive effect on the labour market of about 2.3 mn job-years. However, this stimulus will only materialise in countries with idle resources in 2030 that can support further growth (negative output gap, situation of economic downturn). In 2018, about half of the EU28 Member States are expected to have a negative output gap.
In the long run, CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) modelling does not show significant impacts on employment and even slightly negative impacts on GDP. However, energy efficiency will still lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions and significantly lowered carbon allowance and fossil fuel prices, which, given all EU countries are net fossil fuel importers will also improve their terms of trade.