COMBI: Avoidable: More than 250 TWh electricity generation and 10 bn€ investments in combustion plants.

COMBI quantifications are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

For analysing efficiency impacts on the energy system and energy security, the dedicated COMBI energy balance model was developed and applied. A number of relevant indicators were quantified:

• Energy intensity is reduced up to 22 kgoe/1000€ GDP
• The COMBI HHI index measuring energy security through import dependency, diversification of energy sources and geographical diversification improves by up to 5%
• Avoided generation of power from combustibles-based power plants amounts to 257 TWh in the EU and
• avoided investments to these power plants to around 10bn €.

De-rated reserve capacity rate (defined as the reserve capacity of the power sector, divided by its total installed capacity, multiplied by 100) improves in almost all EU countries.

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COMBI: Up to 1% of GDP, 2.3mn job-years and lower fossil fuel prices.

COMBI quantifications are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Macro-economic impacts are quantified using two modelling approaches: input-output modelling for short-term (business cycle) effects and CGE modelling for long-term/structural effects. As also seen in other modelling (e.g. EU-COM impact assessment of EED), these models give a range of possible outcomes.

In the short run, the positive macro-economic stimulus is substantial; we estimate 0.9 per cent of EU’s GDP and a positive effect on the labour market of about 2.3 mn job-years. However, this stimulus will only materialise in countries with idle resources in 2030 that can support further growth (negative output gap, situation of economic downturn). In 2018, about half of the EU28 Member States are expected to have a negative output gap.

In the long run, CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) modelling does not show significant impacts on employment and even slightly negative impacts on GDP. However, energy efficiency will still lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions and significantly lowered carbon allowance and fossil fuel prices, which, given all EU countries are net fossil fuel importers will also improve their terms of trade.

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COMBI: Shifting from non-refurbished to refurbished buildings can mean 4.5 additional annual work-days.

COMBI quantifications are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Human productivity following improved health conditions from building refurbishment and transport modal shift are estimated: Several new metrics such as active days, workforce performance and earning ability are proposed to rigorously measure productivity impact of EEI. Accelerated EEI actions between 2015 and 2030 would bring these additional benefits in the year 2030:

• in Europe, on an average 4.5 active work days/person per annum can be gained by having more deeply retrofitted buildings, passive houses, and nearly zero energy buildings.
• In addition, by improving the mental well-being on an average European country can gain around 15.7 million euro/year and on an average 1961 healthy life years per million population per annum can be gained by avoiding exposure to bad indoor air quality and conditions.

By opting for modal shift towards active transportation, on an average 1.6 hours/driver can be saved from traffic congestion in a year.

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COMBI: improving the quality of residential housing may avoid 24 000 premature deaths and loss of 23 000 life-years annually.

According to the European Union’s Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU SILC), 9.4% of European Union’s population were unable to keep their homes adequately warm and 15.2% lived in residential housing characterized by a leaking roof, damp walls, floors or foundation, and rot in window frames or floors in 2015. COMBI quantified the energy poverty-related public health impacts in the year 2030 of accelerated building refurbishments between 2015 and 2030 – avoided excess cold weather deaths due to reduced indoor cold exposure and avoided/reduced asthma due to reduced indoor dampness exposure.

Results are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Depending on scenarios of whether policies are targeted towards socially vulnerable or not at all, the results show that:

• 3 000–24 000 avoided premature deaths due to reduced indoor cold
• 2 700–22 300 avoided disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) loss of asthma morbidity due to reduced indoor dampness
• The associated economic value of avoided annual public health damage in 2030 ranges from 323 million EUR to 2.5 billion EUR for premature mortality due to indoor cold; and
• from 338 million EUR to of 2.9 billion EUR due to asthma morbidity due to indoor dampness.

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COMBI: EE not only saves energy and 360Mt of CO2 emissions, but also 150Mt upstream emissions and 850Mt of material resources.

The researchers quantified the material demand and greenhouse gas emissions from energy efficiency improvements as annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Energy efficiency is resource efficiency. More than 850 million tons of material do not have to be permanently removed from nature, if Europe implements energy efficiency measures in all sectors. As well, some 360Mt CO2eq of greenhouse gas emissions from direct combustion can be saved plus an additional 150 Mt CO2eq of upstream emissions from the energy provision chain.

Yet, there are also resource costs. As an example from the transport sector, roughly 51 million tons of fossil fuels could be saved from improvements in the transport sector alone, but some additional 18 million tons of metal ores are required to provide the necessary transport systems of the future.

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COMBI: Reduced air pollution could avoid over 11 000 premature deaths and loss of 230 000 life-years annually.

Air pollution is still the single largest environmental threat to human health in Europe. COMBI applied the GAINS model (Greenhouse Gas – Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model) to quantify effects of accelerated energy efficiency improvements on air pollution. Results are annual impacts in the year 2030, that result from energy efficiency actions throughout Europe leading to energy savings of about 8% relative to a reference scenario.

Accelerated EEI actions between 2015 and 2030 would bring these additional benefits in the year 2030:

• Additional 10 805 premature deaths would be avoided due to reduced exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5) in the EU-28
• additional 442 deaths would be avoided due to reduced exposure to ground level ozone.
• Avoided life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 exposure in the year 2030 stands at around 230 000 Years of Life Lost (YOLLs) for the whole of the EU-28.
• Additional 4.4 thousand km2 would de spared from acidification and an additional 13.3 thousand km2 would be spared from eutrophication
• In monetary terms, the value of avoidable mortality may amount to 460 million EUR due to PM2.5 and 46 million EUR due to ground level ozone in the year 2030 for the EU-28.
• The value of avoided life expectancy loss would stand at immense 26 billion EUR in 2030 for the EU-28 – note: as with all impacts, this is only the incremental value, difference between the two scenarios of the year 2030.

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